Breaking Down the Downswing
Every poker player — recreational or seasoned pro — eventually hits a rough patch at the tables. The question is: how much of it is variance, and how much is something you can actually fix?
Poker coach and author Alex Fitzgerald tackles that exact question in a new strategy piece for PokerOrg, identifying five distinct reasons a player might find themselves in a downswing. While the excerpt doesn't detail each reason, Fitzgerald's reputation as a coach who emphasises honest self-assessment suggests the list likely spans both the technical (leaks in range construction, poor bet-sizing) and the mental (tilt, fatigue, and flawed session management).
Why This Matters
There's a meaningful difference between a downswing driven by standard variance — the unavoidable short-term swings baked into poker's probability — and one driven by exploitable mistakes. Conflating the two is itself a common error: players who assume they're running badly may skip the study sessions that would actually move the needle.
A few questions worth asking yourself during any cold streak:
- Have your win rates in specific spot types (3-bet pots, multiway flops, etc.) shifted recently?
- Are you logging session notes or relying purely on memory?
- Is your physical and mental state consistent across sessions, or are you playing longer and later than usual?
- Have you had a recent leak review from a coach or a trusted study group?
Distinguishing bad luck from bad play is one of the most underrated analytical skills in poker — and it's also one of the hardest to be honest about when results are hurting.
Fitzgerald's full breakdown is worth a read whether you're in a slump right now or just want a checklist to return to when one inevitably arrives.